A fresh batch of data Thursday signaling rising inflation, combined with ongoing concerns about the nationwide slump in home sales, has sharpened the debate over whether the weakness in housing will spill into the broader economy and spark a recession.
The U.S. Labor Department's Producer Price Index for February jumped by 1.3 percent, above the market estimate of 0.5 percent, with a big increase in energy prices and the largest rise in food costs in more than three years.
Even excluding food and energy, the core wholesale index rose 0.4 percent, double what analysts were predicting.
Worries about the ripple effect of problems in the subprime-mortgage market also are adding to fears. The subprime-lending market is the sector serving higher-risk borrowers, with higher interest rates and far higher chances of forclosures.
"Everything is kicking the housing market while it's down," said Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida.
Weakness in new-home sales and the record backlog of existing homes for sale in the Orlando area and others parts of the country are problems that could now linger into 2008, Snaith said, rather than dissipate by late 2007.
But with mortgage-interest rates still low, continuing job growth, and unemployment rates that are "incredibly low," he said, "all the underpinnings for the economy are still on solid ground."
Metro Orlando also continues to look particularly healthy relative to some markets, he said.
In his latest forecast, for example, Snaith projects that employment growth in the Orlando area will slow only slightly during the third and fourth quarters, in terms of year-over-year percentage change, then begin accelerating in the first quarter of 2008 and be back to 2006 levels by the end of next year. Single-family home starts are projected to continue falling until the second quarter of 2008. Courtesy Orlando Sentinel 3/16/07.
